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Why is Indian Stock Market Falling?

 

                     Why is Indian Stock Market Falling?

The stock market has taken a beating for sixth day in a row. On Thursday, 24^th September 2020, #SENSEX fell 650 points while the #NIFTY slipped below 11,000. Several factors have been responsible for the fall in #stock market. It came in the wake of #Fed US Officials reiterating that the US economy was actually much worse than the market pricing. Moreover, a reemergence of Corona Virus (COVID-19) scare in European cities followed by lockdown restrictions, are some of the main causes why the stock market has taken a plunge. We will go in detail how each one of the causes has affected the stock market and what are the future predictions.

2020 US Presidential Elections

This year’s #Presidential elections in the United States are scheduled for Tuesday, 3^rd November. History reveals that the market returns are independent of which political party occupies the Oval Office, but still, around 93% of investors believe that the US elections are going to impact their returns.

A second win for the republican candidate and current US President, #Donald Trump is predicted as most of the Presidents in the past have been reelected unless, they witnessed a recession. This probably explains why President #Trump has been recently stressing on trade. Also, if Trump is reelected, it would be favorable for the market.

On the other hand, #democratic Presidential candidate #Joe Biden has announced the reversal of 2017 tax cuts if he is elected to the oval office.

The markets depend hugely on the US President’s ability to enact legislation. Moreover, around the time of Presidential elections the stock market becomes a little unpredictable and witness fluctuations.

$2 Trillion Scam by Global Big Banks

Financial Crime Enforcement Network or #FinCEN has reported a global fraud including big banks, to the tune of $ 2 Trillion. It is revealed that many big banks have deliberately allowed fraudsters to rotate money even after they had a clue about their suspicious activities.

#HSBC, a British multinational investment bank and financial services holding company has deliberately allowed the fraudsters to move millions of dollars even after it was informed by the #US investigators about the suspicious nature of the scheme.

Another, American bank, #JP Morgan and Co. had allowed a company to move over $ 1 Billion through a London account, without even verifying, the owner of the company. It is suspected that a gangster on the #FBI’s 10 most wanted list might be the actual owner of the company.

Similarly, #Deutsche Bank and #Standard Chartered allowed drug traffickers, terrorists and mobsters to move money throughout the globe for illegal activities.

The #SAR i.e. Suspicious Activities Report submitted by the #FinCEN also includes 44 Indian banks and over 2000 transaction amounting to $ 1 billion.

Some of the major Indian banks found helping the fraudsters are – #Punjab National Bank (290 transactions), #State Bank of India (102 transactions), #Bank of Baroda (93 transactions), #Union Bank of India (99 transactions) and #Canara Bank (190 transactions).

Immediately after the scam was unearthed, stock prices of several banks involved, dipped sharply, taking the stock market by a surprise.

 London Lockdown

New #COVID-19 restrictions have been imposed in UK as the corona virus cases have been increasing. The UK Prime Minister has spoken publically that they now seem to be staring at the second wave of COVID-19 across the UK.

After the lockdown was imposed, the #FTSE or the Financial Times Stock Exchange took a straight plunge of £15billion.

Some of the worst hit companies by the COVID-19 scare are #British Airways, down by 12%; #Mitchells & Butlers, one of the biggest pub and restaurant owners of the UK saw a fall of steep 15%.      

Continuing Indo-China Border Dispute

Since mid June this year when 20 Indian soldiers have died in a brutal skirmish with their Chinese counterparts, the tension between the neighbors has only been escalating. 

Experts are also of the opinion that India’s border dispute with China will linger a bit longer and wouldn’t be easy to resolve.

With both sides imposing sanctions on each other it’s very likely that the trade gets affected. Many pharmaceutical giants in India import raw chemicals from China. The total Indian exports to China stands at $16.6 billion, while the Chinese exports to India stands at $58 billion. The two are too deeply involved in trade and any dispute is likely to impact the market negatively.  

The Indian stock market is emotionally driven and the predictably long dispute with China has taken it for a dip.

*Kindly have advise from expert for portfolio balancing before including stock in your portfolio.

*Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

* Mr. Vinay Prakash Tiwari is a SEBI Registered investment Advisor

Investing Daddy

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CHEMCON, CAMS & Angel Broking IPO Comparison

CHEMCON, CAMS & Angel Broking IPO Comparison

CHEMCON and CAMS have opened their IPO on 21^st September 2020 while Angel Broking will be opening its IPO on 22^nd September 2020. Below given is a brief description of the IPOs and also a financial comparison of the companies to make it easy for you to make your choice.

IPOs Comparison   

 

COMPANY	IPO DATE	LISTING DATE	IPO PRICE/EQUITY SHARE (Rs)	MIN. ODRER QUANTITY	MAX. ORDER QUANTITY	CUT-OFF PRICE(Rs)
CHEMCON	Sep 21, 2020 – Sep 23, 2020	October 1, 2020 at BSE &NSE	338 to 340	44 shares	572 shares	14, 960/194, 480
CAMS	Sep 21, 2020 – Sep 23, 2020	October 1, 2020 at BSE	1229 to 1230	12 shares	156 shares	14,760/ 191, 880
ANGEL BROKING	Sep 22, 2020 – Sep 24, 2020	Oct 5, 2020 at BSE & NSE	305 to 306	49 shares	637 shares	14, 994/ 1, 94, 922

 

Financial Comparison of the Companies

The table given below compares the financial status of the three companies for the past two to three years.

CHEMCON Company Financial Information –

Particulars	Financial Year (in Million Rs)
	31-March-20	31-March-19	31-March-18	31-March-17
Total Assets	2257.92	1730.33	970.66	626.8
Total Revenue	2660.17	3053.26	1583.91	899.96
Profit After Tax	488.53	430.41	263.81	28.24

 

CAMS Company financial Information -

Particulars	Financial Year (in Million Rs)
	30-June-20	31-March-20	31-March-19	31-March-18
Total Assets	8354.53	8025.34	7363.24	6978.48
Total Revenue	1634.61	7213.43	7118.08	6578.20
Profit After Tax	408.25	1734.56	1308.95	1464.05

 

Angel Broking Financial Information -

Particulars	Financial Year (in Million Rs)
	31-June-20	31-March-20	31-March-19	31-March-18
Total Assets	29731.02	21592.05	21690.56	22828.67
Total Revenue	2440.86	7427.79	7626.47	7536.55
Profit After Tax	381.83	866.24	766.94	1010.52

 

It is evident from the tables above, that only one company has been able to grow tremendously in terms of profit after tax in the past three years and that is Chemcon Ltd.

Profit after tax of CHEMCON has risen from 28.24 Million in March’17 to 488.53 million in Mar 2020. On the other hand, Angel Broking and CAMS have lost in the past two years in terms of profit after tax.

The asset value of Chemcon has also increased in comparison to the other two companies.

Also, Chemcon has tremendous growth prospect in the coming 5-10 years because it is the world’s largest producer of CMIC Chemicals and in wake of COVID 19 pandemic such pharmaceutical chemicals are going to be in high demand in the future.  

The order of preference for the IPOs is – CHEMCON at number 1 followed by Angel Broking at number 2 and CAMS at number 3.

 *Kindly have advise from expert for portfolio balancing before including stock in your portfolio.

*Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

* Mr. Vinay Prakash Tiwari is a SEBI Registered investment Advisor

Investing Daddy

+917415511526

+919628519650

 

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CAMS VS CHEMCON ?

 

#CHEMCON and CAMS #IPO

CHEMCON IPO

Chemcon Specialty #Chemicals Ltd is an India based #pharmaceutical chemicals manufacturer. It is also the largest manufacturer of CMIC (chloromethyl isopropyl carbonate) chemicals in the world.

CHEMCON India has released an IPO which would be on sale from 21^st September ’20 to 23^rd September ’20.

The IPO price is fixed at something between Rs 338 to Rs 340

Minimum 1 lot consisting of 44 shares for Rs 14, 960 has to be purchased.

Maximum 13 lots consisting of 572 shares for Rs 1, 94,480 can be bought.

In wake of the scenario after the COVID 19 pandemic and given to the fact that CAMCON is the largest producer of CMIC, its growth prospects in the near future are tremendous.

#CAMS IPO

Computer Age Management Services or CAMS has issued an IPO from 21^st September 20 to 23^rd September 20 with a price band of Rs 1229 to Rs 1230.

Minimum bid quantity of IPO is 12. The IPO will be listed in BSE only.

*Kindly have advise from expert for portfolio balancing before including stock in your portfolio.

*Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

* Mr. Vinay Prakash Tiwari is a SEBI Registered investment Advisor

Investing Daddy

+917415511526

+919628519650

 

Blog: https://investingdaddy.blogspot.com/2018/07/investing-daddy-investment-adviser-to.html

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IMPACT OF INDIA CHINA WAR ON STOCK MARKET

 

                                  #Indo-China Trade War

A recent clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers at Galwan Valley on 15^th June 2020, resulting in the martyrdom of 20 Indian soldiers, has stirred up a storm in India-China trade relations. As an immediate measure after the conflict, the government of India banned total 59 Chinese Apps. Some of the most popular Apps banned were #TikTok, #Shareit, #Club_Factory, #WeChat, #Clash_of_Kings, and #Cam_Scanner among others.  

In the near future, the #Indo-China conflict only seems to be widened. With both sides buckling up to impose trade sanctions on one another, economies are going to be affected. Let’s first understand the Indo-Chinese trade relationship before assessing the prospects of a trade war of a full scaled war.

Basics of Indo-China Trade

India – China trade relations are too deeply rooted into the economy of India than on the China side. It is so because – China is the largest trade partner of India, also India imports more from China than it exports to it; something in trading terms called as having a ‘trade deficit’ with China.  

Moreover, if we look at the data of past 10 years, India’s trade deficit with #China has almost doubled. This means that, in the past 10 years the import of Chinese goods to India has doubled while the exports of goods to China has largely remained unaltered. As on February 2020 China accounted for 11% of total Indian imports, while its share in Indian exports was only 3%. Also, as on February 2020, India trade deficit was $9.8 billion.

India’s primary export to China includes organic chemicals, plastic items, cotton, mineral fuels, slag, natural pearls, fish, iron, and steel etc. In the FY 19-20 India exported goods worth $16.6 billion to China.

On the other hand, #India imported goods worth $62.4 billion from China in the FY 19-20. The imports from China include significant #machineries and #telecom equipments – mobile phones, telecom equipments, #toys, #automobile parts, #heavy_electrical_machines, fertilizers, foods, pharmaceutical ingredients, textiles etc.

To sum it up – in case of a full scaled war with China, Indian economy will be more adversely affected that that of the China. Unless of course if we take some serious measures towards self reliance, but it wouldn’t be as easy as it sounds.

Stocks Likely to be affected by Indo-China War

Any escalation of border dispute between India and China would impact Indian Pharmaceutical firms, consumer durables, telecom, power, and automobile industry etc.

Indian pharmaceutical industry currently imports around 70% Active #Pharmaceutical Ingredients from China, so in case of a war it is likely to be impacted.

Similarly, India automobile industry imports huge amounts of spare parts, engines, etc from Chinese manufacturers. Also, the influence of China on Indian mobile phone industry needs no explanation. Chinese companies have a 60% share in Indian mobile phone market. India imports around Rs 7000 to Rs 8000 Crore worth of mobile phone components every month from China.  

So, the bottom line is that the mentioned companies and their stocks will be most affected in case of an Indo-China war. Let’s get into a little more detailed analysis of company wise stocks.

Sector Wise Analysis of Stocks

Let’s do a brief sector wise analysis of Indian companies least affected and most affected by an Indo-china war.

·       #Automobile Industry

Although, Indian automobile giants like #TataMotors, #Mahindra&Mahindra, #MothersonSumi, and #BharatForge ETC. import a good deal of spare parts from China, a war is going to have a negative impact on their supply chain. However, they would be least affected given to their diversified business and global presence. 

·       #Consumer_Durables Industry

Indian consumer durable companies listed in NSE/BSE are #Bajaj_Electricals_Ltd, #Crompton_Greaves Consumer electric Ltd, #Blue_Star Ltd, #Godrej & #Boyce Manufacturing Company Ltd, etc are least likely to be affected. 95% of equipments sold in India are manufactured locally. Moreover, the companies have already started looking for local part manufacturers in wake of supply chain disruption due to COVID-19.

·       #Pharmaceutical Sector

Indian pharmaceutical industry depends around 60-70% on imports of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients from China. However, big names like #Sun_Pharma and #Cipla would be least affected because they are mostly self reliant and don’t rely much on imports from China.

·       #Telecom Sector

Some of the big names in the Indian Telecom Sector like #Bharti_Airtel and #Idea_Vodafone are likely to be most affected by Indo China rift escalation as they depend hugely on imports from China. However, Indian telecom giant Reliance Jio is least likely to be affected because it doesn’t depend on China for network equipments.

·       #Chemical and #Agro_Chemical Sector

Some of the most impacted stocks in this sector would be of the companies – #Dhanuka, #Insecticide_India, #Rallis, etc. However, companies like #Bayer_India and #Coromandel would be least affected. On the positive side, there would be some likely gainers as well – #Aarti_Industries and #Bharat_Rasayan, etc.

·       #E-commerce Sector

Companies in the sector with maximum Chinese investment will be most impacted. Such companies include #Paytm, #Zomato, #Info_Edge, #Snap_Deal, #Ola, #Swiggy, etc.

The Positive Side of the War

The escalation could be an opportunity for Indian startups to come up and expand their reach in the domestic market. With the government of India reiterating its commitment to making India self reliant, there is some hope for domestic manufacturers. As for now the future seems bright. If the dream of self reliance is completed then we will have local products manufacturers instead of importing them from China.

 

 *Kindly have advise from expert for portfolio balancing before including stock in your portfolio.

*Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

* Mr. Vinay Prakash Tiwari is a SEBI Registered investment Advisor

Investing Daddy

+917415511526

+919628519650

 

Blog: https://investingdaddy.blogspot.com/2018/07/investing-daddy-investment-adviser-to.html

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